fredag 27. mai 2011

Min kommentar i The Economist-debatt om vekst i verdensøkonomien 2011-2013

Dagens graf fra The Economist, gjengitt over, viser IMFs fremskrivning for store økonomier fra idag (eller rettere sagt BNP for de siste 12 mnd) til september 2013 (eller rettere sagt forventet BNP okt. 2012-sep. 2013). Ifølge The Economist venter IMF at verdensøkonomien skal vokse fra dagens 65 billioner USD til 75 billioner USD, en vekst på ikke mindre enn 15 % på 2 1/3 år.

Her er min kommentar:
Utopian Realism wrote:
May 27th 2011 6:48 GMT

This puzzles me: A number of the countries included appears to gain in growth as measured here due to stronger currencies relative to the US dollar. But if the dollar is, in consequence, expected to get weaker relative to these other currencies, then how come the US is expected to grow by as much as 9,7 % over the next 2 years and 4 months? It would really be helpful to know what USD depreciation is factored in here.

This said, expected USD depreciation relative to most other major currencies would explain why the 'world GDP' is expected to grow by as much as 15 % over 2,333 years (which would otherwise seem to be quite a mouthful). On the other hand, how telling is that growth number if it is based on a weaker dollar? With a weaker dollar, even constant production worldwide would appear as a growing world economy, in dollar terms.

Now here's a challenge: Try presenting these predictions in terms of a major currency which is extected to get stronger, not weaker. The result, ironically, of choosing one of the "emerging" currencies as the default measure instead of the US dollar, would be that the world economy would not appear to be growing all that fast afterall.

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