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Utopian Realism wrote:May 27th 2011 6:48 GMTThis puzzles me: A number of the countries included appears to gain in growth as measured here due to stronger currencies relative to the US dollar. But if the dollar is, in consequence, expected to get weaker relative to these other currencies, then how come the US is expected to grow by as much as 9,7 % over the next 2 years and 4 months? It would really be helpful to know what USD depreciation is factored in here.
This said, expected USD depreciation relative to most other major currencies would explain why the 'world GDP' is expected to grow by as much as 15 % over 2,333 years (which would otherwise seem to be quite a mouthful). On the other hand, how telling is that growth number if it is based on a weaker dollar? With a weaker dollar, even constant production worldwide would appear as a growing world economy, in dollar terms.
Now here's a challenge: Try presenting these predictions in terms of a major currency which is extected to get stronger, not weaker. The result, ironically, of choosing one of the "emerging" currencies as the default measure instead of the US dollar, would be that the world economy would not appear to be growing all that fast afterall.
